Winning the Right Game by Ron Adner

Author:Ron Adner
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: MIT Press

Locating Innovations in the Framework

To locate an innovation in a given quadrant, start by assessing the challenges associated with ecosystem emergence. Then, articulate your view of how each factor will be resolved. Finally, give your assessment of how challenging this resolution will be. Follow a similar process for extension opportunity. Picking location is clearly a matter of judgment, but with this process, the rationale behind your judgment will be clear not only to you, but also to others whom you might need to bring along. Some would look at autonomous vehicles in 2021 and say that they are still stuck in Quadrant 4, pointing out that regulatory barriers hinder the market for mainstream adoption, while technology spillbacks continue to enhance the performance of human drivers. Others will position AVs on the cusp of Quadrant 2, claiming that autonomous driving in geo-fenced districts is well established, and that Tesla’s autopilot feature has made highway driving a de facto reality. Still others may point to Waymo’s self-driving taxi pilots as proof that we are in Quadrant 1. By being explicit about differences in a team’s assessment of location, we can identify and unpack the different assumptions that underlie their beliefs and intuitions—how they define the value propositions, how they conceive of market segments and market boundaries, how they are choosing to measure success. This exercise offers the dual benefits of increasing clarity about the external environment—the key to being right—while also increasing clarity about the internal perspectives within your team—the key to being effective.

A value proposition’s location in a given quadrant is not static—as ecosystem bottlenecks resolve and as extension opportunities become exhausted, the relative balance of forces will change. Hence, while cloud computing spent the 1990s and much of the 2000s in Quadrant 4, it was squarely in Quadrant 2 by the 2010s, and heading into Quadrant 1 in the 2020s.

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